Tag: decision-making
11 posts tagged "decision-making".
The art and science of choosing well under uncertainty — weighing options, judging odds, and acting before all the facts are in. On this blog it leans on the rationality tradition and on behavioral economics, which catalogues the biases that quietly derail us, mapped most influentially by Daniel Kahneman. Good decisions hinge on calibrated predictions — a skill Philip Tetlock has studied — and on structuring choices for optionality, so that being wrong stays cheap and being right pays off.
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The ‘Bias’ Bias: No, Your Brain is Not Made of Swiss Cheese
Most apparent biases are, in fact, perfectly good heuristics, and people are far more rational than we have been led to believe.
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Things that Surprised Me About the First Year of Parenthood
One year ago my daughter was born. This is the single most monumental thing to ever happen to me.
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10 Principles of Optionality For an Uncertain World
What is optionality? If you want a thorough answer, check out the big juicy book I spent the last couple of years writing.
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Announcing Optionality, the Book: How You Can Get Involved
As many of you know, I've been working on a book project for the last few years.
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The Embarrassing Problem of Premature Exploitation
Video games give you a clear pathway for leveling up into a muscle-bound hero, and impressing scantily-clad elven princesses with your Very Big Sword.
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Time Travel for Pleasure and Profit
Our meatsack bodies slavishly plod along at the precise rate of one second per second.
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The Best of the Best Books I Read in 2019
Of all the books I read this year - curated by Deep Dish readers and other people of impeccable taste - these are the cream of the crop.
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The Optionality Approach to Getting Lucky
What is optionality? My favourite tool for finding juicy asymmetries between risk and reward, and creating your own luck.
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Constraints That Liberate
Something I’ve learned the hard way is that you can absolutely have too much of a good thing. Unconstrained freedom is, well... kind of freaky, actually.
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Goals Gone Wild
There’s a huge body of evidence that goal setting works, which is why everyone refuses to shut up about it. But could it be that goals are too powerful?
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The Best of the Best Books I Read in 2018
Of the 100+ books I read this year - curated by Deep Dish readers and other people of impeccable taste - these are the cream of the crop.
