Tag: predictions
5 posts tagged "predictions".
Explicit forecasts about the future, ideally stated with probabilities and scored after the fact so that good and bad judgement can be told apart. Philip Tetlock's research on "superforecasters" showed that ordinary people who think in degrees, update often, and avoid grand ideology can out-predict credentialed experts. Treating beliefs as testable bets is a core discipline of rationality and a natural ally of decision-making under uncertainty. In a world of tail risk, Nassim Taleb adds the caution that the rare, high-impact events that matter most are often exactly the ones our prediction methods miss.
Posts:
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Is Crypto Bullshit? Calling My Shots
Nothing in this arena can be taken at face value, which makes it unusually fertile ground for battle-testing your own critical thinking skills.
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If the Stock Market Crashed Today
The standard line is that market crashes just don’t matter a damn if you're a long-term investor. Today, I'm no longer so sure that's true.
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10 Principles of Optionality For an Uncertain World
What is optionality? If you want a thorough answer, check out the big juicy book I spent the last couple of years writing.
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Beware of Geeks Bearing Formulas
The history of finance is a history of brains splattered on the pavement. Just how safe is the buy-and-hold index funds orthodoxy?
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How a Billionaire Taught Me to Invest Using the Force
I didn't get to ask David Booth to weigh in on the Han vs Greedo controversy, but our conversation was still among the most life-changing I’ve ever had.
