Bitcoin is not that stupid cover image

Why Bitcoin is Not That Stupid

I have held off on sharing my true feelings about Bitcoin until now, as it soars past its all-time high, so that it will be maximally humiliating when the bubble bursts and all the funny Internet money becomes worthless again.

See, I have something to get off my chest: I don’t think Bitcoin is stupid.

No, not even at these apparently ridiculous prices. Not even when financial illiterates are making grandiose claims about where it’ll end up.

People much smarter than me have made the case for Bitcoin using careful technical or fundamental arguments. I’m not going to attempt that in this post, or regurgitate the basics of cryptocurrency (I’ll suggest some resources later on).

Instead, I want to make two points I haven’t seen addressed elsewhere…

what does optionality means? 10 rules for optionality in an uncertain world

10 Principles of Optionality For an Uncertain World

What is optionality? If you want a thorough answer, check out the big juicy book I spent the last couple of years writing.

In the meantime, I’ve written a post that links together everything I’ve written in one place, and gives a taste of what the book is about for new readers.

Here’s my definition of optionality, adapted from the introduction of the book, followed by 10 principles for navigating an uncertain world…

the problem with happiness research: it's all relative

Happiness is a Greased Pig Chase

Despite having grown up in the country and attended my fair share of the agricultural shows and carnivals that pass for entertainment, I have never known the joy of chasing a pig—greased, or otherwise.

I no longer feel a desperate need to address this glaring gap in my childhood experience, because the last couple of years have given me a pretty good sense of what it must feel like.

Happiness is a greased pig chase. I don’t mean this in the ‘happiness is a warm blanket’ Peanuts sense, although clearly rural folks get a big kick out of it. I mean it in the sense that the concept itself is extremely difficult to pin down…

Announcing the optionality book: how you can get involved

Announcing Optionality, the Book: How You Can Get Involved

As many of you know, I’ve been working on a book project for the last few years. Now I can finally announce it officially: Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World is a thing that exists in the world!

This is a synthesis of everything we’ve been thinking about here on the blog, and much more. I’m really proud of it, and excited to make it accessible to as many people as possible.

Briefly, the book lays out a strategy for not only becoming resilient to future shocks, but positioning yourself to profit from an unpredictable world: investing, insurance, social support networks, health and fitness, and skills, all viewed through the lens of making confident decisions under uncertainty.

It takes a village to write a book. I’ve tested some of the ideas here on the blog, and have benefited enormously from having readers give feedback on the structure, title, design, and early drafts.

It also takes a village to launch one. As a first-time author, I’m asking you, dear readers, for help in marketing the book and spreading it to communities and groups that would benefit from it…

Is blogging worth it? Cheap option for attracting serendipity

Is Blogging Worth It? A Cheap Option for Attracting Serendipity

Blogging is an endurance sport. It takes a while to hit your stride, but as Deep Dish’s 4th birthday approaches, and with it, a million views and a thousand comments, I think I have a decent sense of whether it’s all been worth it. Is blogging really that rewarding? Did I waste my time on this thing? Should you start […]

Make frugality great again hat

Make Frugality Great Again!

What comes to mind when you think of the word frugality? For me, it’s a used tea bag sitting in a saucer, waiting to be re-dunked. Or arguing with the store manager to try to get a discount. Or ‘mum says we have food at home’.

And that’s coming from someone who loves this thing. The first post I ever published was my viral 2016 ‘coming out’ essay on the life-changing power of frugality. This is still the best experiment I’ve ever run, and set me up for everything that followed.

But longtime readers might have noticed that I’ve moved away from this kind of material over the years. Partly, it’s because I find early retirement blogs interminably boring. If I see another ‘monthly income report’ post I will scream.

I’ve also been feeling a little uneasy about the virtues of frugality and the early retirement movement. My upcoming book is about how I fell out of love with these ideas, and my attempt to build a more well-rounded philosophy. Whether or not you read the book, I feel like I should explain how my thinking has changed in recent years…

personal security audit cover image

Getting Hacked and Getting Hard

CLEARANCE SALE! VANS SHOES CHEAP! I was as surprised as anyone to hear that I’d pivoted from blogging to hawking knock-off footwear on Facebook. After pulling down the scam posts and changing my password, I checked my activity log. At least three interlopers had somehow managed to access my account, one of them several years ago. Creepy, but unimaginative: they didn’t lock me out, or steal my identity, or use my password to access other sites. As far as I know, my nudes are still between me and Zuckerberg.

Then there was the second incident: I changed my Google password, immediately forgot it, and couldn’t get back in. I filled in the account recovery forms over and over, and sat there silently panicking as each robotic form rejection destroyed a tiny piece of my soul. There was no way to get in touch with a human being. With one moment of carelessness, I was sure I’d lost all my work, and years of treasured memories.

On both occasions I got lucky: it could have been much, much worse. Screwing up for a third time was probably tempting fate, so I decided it was time to actually sit down and sort out my online security…

the perfect daily routine cover image: rise and grind

It’s Such a Perfect Day

One of the immutable laws of the Internet is that it’s impossible to write a LinkedIn morning routine parody so ridiculous that it couldn’t be mistaken for the real thing.

This genre of hustle-porn sucks, but not because the hustlers are wrong. I’m annoyed because they’re right—at least, in theory—but they spray so much fluorescent orange Cheez over everything that any sensible person is immediately repulsed. If we dismiss the ‘morning routine’ trope as the performative humblebragging of grifters and Silicon Valley narcissists, we’re throwing the baby out with the (essential oil-infused) bathwater…

The modern commonplace book cover image (Roam Research graph view)

The Commonplace Book: How to Get Compound Interest on Your Ideas

Everything compounds. Momentum is an underappreciated force of nature: not only in finance, but waistlines, populations, popularity, curiosity, and information.

Ideas want to propagate themselves. When two ideas have sex, most of the offspring are hideous mutants: the shower thoughts, the drunken 3am kitchen ‘creations’. Ramen pizza is probably not going to catch on. But very occasionally, you get something beautiful.

The last post was about collecting and curating the best ideas. This post is about earning compound interest on your collection. The magic happens in the nooks where ideas collide and fuse, but we have to create the right conditions for recombination—the equivalent of turning down the lights and piping Barry Manilow through the speakers.

To earn compound interest on your money, you need somewhere to put it, like a bank account, and a practice for making it grow—an investing strategy. Same goes for information. I suggest the ‘somewhere to put it’ should be a Commonplace Book, and the ‘practice for making it grow’ should be the Zettelkasten Method.

If this is all German to you, no fear. Here’s what we’re going to cover…

Notes on Note Taking: How to Read a Book

Notes on Note Taking: How to Read a Book

Note taking is overrated. Underlining key passages, scribbling insightful observations in the margin of library books to amuse a future stranger—we get it, you read Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince—the colour-coded set of highlighters, etc. This kind of thing is very cute, and at the risk of offending my favourite productivity pornographers, almost certainly misses the point…

the futility of giving universally good advice

A Repository of Cool Stuff For People Who Are Somewhat Like Us

No-one is ever forcing you to act on a recommendation, this is just another data point to factor into your decision, and more information is always better. Right?

…no. Search costs are a thing that exists. Bad information is worse than no information, so we have a responsibility to find and boost genuine signals, rather than spray out more noise. As Tyler Cowen says, giving someone your favourite book imposes an obligation on them: now they have to read it, or skim enough to convincingly pretend they read it, or at least feel guilty about not having read it.

Format, context, preference, timing: unless all these factors happen to line up, specific recommendations sound a lot like random monkey noises.

I say all of this as a prelude to the fact that I’m about to…lay a bunch of recommendations on you.

Roam Research for Getting Things Done (GTD) Cover Image

Roam Research for Getting Things Done (GTD)

This is a GTD guide I wrote for the Roam Research team. I’ve since developed a much smoother workflow, so I’ll update this guide soon. In the meantime, this should give you a decent intro to both GTD and Roam.

The central idea of GDT is to capture and close ‘open loops’—to get stray thoughts, to-dos, and concerns out of your head, and pin them to the page for future processing.

This frees up mental bandwidth so you’re not feeling guilty or overwhelmed, and means you don’t have to rely on the memory of your leaky meat-computer. As David Allen says: “Your mind is for having ideas, not holding them.”

There are dozens of approaches to implementing GTD, each tailored to a different set of tools and preferences. Here’s how you can set up a simple GTD-style system in Roam…

Kindly Stop Saying The Efficient Market Hypothesis is Dead

There are whispers that the Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH) is dead.

Smart people say the EMH may have been the real victim of the coronavirus. These people, or their friends, were able to get ahead of the recent market crash. They sold stocks before the market reacted, or shorted them, or bought ‘put’ options, and made handsome profits.

They beat the market without having any special information! They were reading the same news and reports as everyone else. They made a profit by acting on public information that was right there for anyone to see. And so, the EMH is dead, or dying, or at the very least, has a very nasty cough.

I say this is wishful thinking: rumours of the death of efficient markets are greatly exaggerated.

All life is an experiment cover: Einstein beakers illusio

The Self-Experimentation Guide

I started this blog with a vague premise that there was something valuable about trying weird things, and taking a few steps off the beaten path. I didn’t have any actual justification for this at the time, so I borrowed an impressive-sounding quote from some famous sage or other: ‘All life is an experiment.’

Emerson’s non-conformity schtick was enough to get me started. But now I have a much better model for why this is important, and how to make experiments.

Over the last five years, I’ve done something like 100 lifestyle experiments great and small.

Generally these have ended well; occasionally not so well. When I say I have a ‘much better’ model of how to run experiments, that’s a relative term. I have at least managed to avoid doing really dumb shit, although this was initially as much by accident as by design.

Here’s my rough guide to self-experimentation:

Minimalist Fitness: Lost Art of Calisthenics

Minimalist Fitness: The Lost Art of Calisthenics

Calisthenics is—in my totally unbiased opinion—the king of all exercises.

This ancient artform has been practiced and refined by soldiers and athletes for thousands of years. It builds a foundation of strength, kinesthetic awareness, and mobility that carries over to any other physical activity: fighting, climbing, lifting, sex, dancing, sports, yoga, gymnastics.

It costs next to nothing, gives a maximum of results with a minimum of time and effort, and crucially to our current situation, is about as minimalist as it gets…