is crypto bullshit? calling my shots cover image

Is Crypto Bullshit? Calling My Shots

The harshest critics and strident boosters of crypto-land are engaged in an ever-escalating contest to see who can project the most lurid vision of the future. Nothing in this arena can be taken at face value, which makes it unusually fertile ground for battle-testing your own critical thinking skills.

My adventures down the rabbithole have given me a lot of ideas for blog posts, but experience suggests I won’t get round to publishing most of them.

Instead, I want to call my shots right now:

Bitcoin is not that stupid cover image

Why Bitcoin is Not That Stupid

I have held off on sharing my true feelings about Bitcoin until now, as it soars past its all-time high, so that it will be maximally humiliating when the bubble bursts and all the funny Internet money becomes worthless again.

See, I have something to get off my chest: I don’t think Bitcoin is stupid.

No, not even at these apparently ridiculous prices. Not even when financial illiterates are making grandiose claims about where it’ll end up.

People much smarter than me have made the case for Bitcoin using careful technical or fundamental arguments. I’m not going to attempt that in this post, or regurgitate the basics of cryptocurrency (I’ll suggest some resources later on).

Instead, I want to make two points I haven’t seen addressed elsewhere…

Kindly Stop Saying The Efficient Market Hypothesis is Dead

There are whispers that the Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH) is dead.

Smart people say the EMH may have been the real victim of the coronavirus. These people, or their friends, were able to get ahead of the recent market crash. They sold stocks before the market reacted, or shorted them, or bought ‘put’ options, and made handsome profits.

They beat the market without having any special information! They were reading the same news and reports as everyone else. They made a profit by acting on public information that was right there for anyone to see. And so, the EMH is dead, or dying, or at the very least, has a very nasty cough.

I say this is wishful thinking: rumours of the death of efficient markets are greatly exaggerated.

how to profit from coronavirus: investing through the pandemic

How to Profit From Coronavirus

There are a couple of cheap/free options you can to take out to limit the near-bottomless downside risk of COVID-19. I mentioned them in the last post, but they’re time-sensitive; hopefully you took those steps before the panic-buying began.

Now it’s time to think about the upside. When a black swan flaps its wings, great risks and opportunities swirl out of the same chaos.

So: what would it take to not just weather this situation, but profit from it?

stockmarket charts: how safe are index funds, anyway?

Beware of Geeks Bearing Formulas

The history of finance is a history of brains dashed on the pavement. The fact that many people tend to be ‘irrationally’ wary of the markets starts to take on a new significance: the suspicious folk-wisdom has often been correct, while the ‘experts’ have consistently been dangerously wrong.

Hence Warren Buffett’s warning: beware of geeks bearing formulas…

wall street bull: what if the market crashed today?

If the Stock Market Crashed Today

The sky is falling! The market is about to crash! The youth of today are corrupted! Every innocuous thing you love is Bad, Actually! Doomsaying is the grift that keeps on giving. Spread fear and doubt about some looming crisis—real or imagined—and you instantly take on a mantle of wisdom and moral authority. Best of all, you don’t need to […]

Advanced Investing: The Barbell Strategy for Investing

Advanced Investing: The Barbell Strategy for Bastards

Marry an accountant, but have occasional flings with rock stars. Lift very heavy weights for a few repetitions, then do lots of low-impact cardio. Work a secure and boring job, while pursuing highly speculative ventures on the side.
The common thread running through all these ideas is called the ‘Barbell Strategy’, and it’s useful for all sorts of big decisions – from your career and work, to health and fitness, and of course, your investment portfolio…

The Worst Investment Ever: How I Lost $10,000 Catching a Falling Knife

The Worst Investment Ever: How I Lost $10,000 Catching a Falling Knife

It’s pretty embarrassing to air this story in public, but it’s for a good enough cause that I’ve decided to bite the bullet. Back in 2015, I was still picking individual stocks, and doing pretty well for myself. I probably thought I was hot shit. That is, before I made a series of really dumb mistakes which cost me US$10,000.

I would have reached my six figures savings goal much faster if I hadn’t screwed up, but I didn’t lose any sleep over the whole mess. In fact, I’m actually kind of glad it happened. I might be a slow learner, but hopefully you can wise up sooner than I did…

Becoming an investor: An animated guide for beginners

How to Become an Investor: An Animated Guide for Beginners

If you’ve hitched your wagon to the Deep Dish caravan, you’ve got a big problem on your hands: A bunch of small but powerful lifestyle tweaks have unleashed a tsunami of savings and filled your pockets with cash. What to do with all that lovely money? Getting started with investing is easy, and anyone can do it! Come join our hero Jimmy on his epic animated adventure from total noob to investing badass.